Let’s be clear: If we could predict the future prices of cryptocurrencies, we wouldn’t be writing this article. We’d be on a yacht somewhere — and if an industry analyst claims that Bitcoin or other major cryptocurrencies will surge in the coming months, it’s important to take those claims with a grain of salt.
With that said, cryptocurrencies markets have surged in recent weeks. In mid-April, Bitcoin edged above $30,000 for the first time since June 2022, before falling just under that threshold on April 17th. Ethereum’s price rose by about 56% over the past six months, though it’s still 30% lower year-over-year.
Will the summer bring a sustained crypto rally, or are the sudden surges a sign of long-term price instability?
The Case for a 2023 Crypto Rally
For optimists, there are some positive signals: The Federal Reserve is reportedly considering a digital dollar, which would likely be accompanied by an accommodative approach to cryptocurrencies as a whole.
Historically, cryptocurrency values have followed the stock market, but major catalysts — such as a change in Federal Reserve policy — could push cryptos higher relative to major stock indexes.
And those indexes could also facilitate widespread crypto adoption among retail investors. Nasdaq, Inc. plans on launching custody services for digital assets in the second quarter, potentially expanding demand for major cryptocurrencies and tokens.
Related: Bitcoin Is Rallying: What Crypto Traders Should Know
The Case Against a 2023 Crypto Rally
Of course, while the positive signals are positive, they rely quite a bit on external catalysts. It’s worth noting that the crypto markets have seen enormous negative catalysts over the past 12 months.
The collapse of FTX, Celsius, Blockfi, and other crypto startups left investors shaken (and in some cases, without access to their assets). That effect is still visible in cryptocurrency values: While relatively “stable” coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have gradually recovered, the values of smaller coins have been much less predictable.
“The sentiment here doesn’t seem like the last few weeks mean that we can pretend that the last 10 months never happened,” Oliver Linch, chief executive officer of crypto trading platform Bittrex Global, told Yahoo! Finance. “But there is certainly a feeling that maybe this signals that a line can be drawn under those scandals and we can get back to assessing – and valuing – crypto without all the noise from the rumors and wrongdoing.”
In the crypto community, the current sentiment is that cryptocurrencies have risen in value for legitimate reasons — but many analysts believe that while values may continue to gradually increase, an unrestrained rally in summer 2023 is unlikely.
Related: Cryptocurrency Prices Fall Following Silvergate Liquidation
Wild Growth in Crypto Values Is Unsustainable
For cryptocurrency purists, a record-setting rally might actually be bad news. To be useful as currencies, cryptos need to be a reliable store of value; an asset that rises and falls in price by 800% week-over-week is not a reliable store of value.
As cryptocurrencies and tokens become actively useful, price swings should become less dramatic. That’s by design — and for long-term investors, it’s good news.
Related: Are Crypto Wallets Safer Than Crypto Exchanges?
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